锘? When you ask most investors for their favorite stocks http://www.magliacalcioitalia.it/maglia-andrea-barzagli-italia-calcio.html , youll rarely hear them share a blue chip name like Johnson & Johnson, Kraft Foods or Wal-Mart. Instead they will tell you about some amazing growth stock that will be the next Google, Microsoft or Apple.
These investors believe that by simply buying growth stocks with the greatest earnings growth potential that they will make money. Sadly our research clearly shows this not to be truenot even close.
In this article we will dispel the myth about investing in growth stocks and shine the light on a path that has more consistently paved the way to profits.
I know that many of you are still shaking your heads in disbelief. Certainly I must be joking, right? Unfortunately our research details beyond a shadow of a doubt the vast under performance of growth stocks over the past decade.
Stocks with the lowest projected growth rates actually generated the highest return of +5.4% per year. Yes, I know that doesnt sound like much http://www.magliacalcioitalia.it/maglia-stephan-el-shaarawy-italia-calcio.html , but remember the average return of the S&P 500 over that stretch was an anemic -3.3% thanks to two ferocious bear markets.
Each level of additional earnings growth came with decreasing levels of profits for investors. As we look at the most aggressive growth stocks with 30%+ expected earnings growth, we find an embarrassingly low -9.7% return. This begs an obvious question…
Why Dont Growth Stocks Pan Out?
The early investors in growth stocks usually do quite well. They take the early risk when almost no one has heard of the company. As the company bangs out earnings surprise after earnings surprise it gains more investor attention and a much higher share price.
However, at some point the company will be priced for perfection. Meaning that the PE gets too inflated as people are so sure that the good times will just keep rolling (think of a mini version of the late 90s tech bubble).
Unfortunately the exceptional growth stock rarely holds up over time. At some point, as the company tries to expand so rapidly, it will stumble. Even if that just means going from a 50% growth rate to a 40% growth rate. On the surface 40% still sounds greatbut not to the investors who expected 50%+. So naturally the growth stock will tank. And tank fast.
Im sure youve had a few of these growth stocks in your portfolio over the years. So I dont have to remind you how quickly the losses add up. That http://www.magliacalcioitalia.it/maglia-luca-antonelli-italia-calcio.html , in a nutshell, is the danger of investing in growth stocks.
So What Does Work?
Certainly you could look at the stats and conclude that stocks with lower projected growth rates generally outperform. That is true. But we can do a heck of a lot better than that 5.4% return.
The key is to find growth stocks that exceed expectations no matter the growth rate. Meaning that a growth stock that is expected to grow profits by 5% and ends up growing by 7%, will do very well. Ditto for a growth stock expected to grow 30% that ends up at 35% actual earnings growth.
I know on the surface it sounds like you need a crystal ball to predict which companies will beat their earnings projections. Gladly its actually much easier than you think because Len Zacks has done the hard work for you.
In the mid-1970s Len Zacks realized that growth stocks that had big earnings surprises continued to outperform the market over the next several months (this is what academics call the Post Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD)yes, I know it sounds more like a medical problem than a means in which to invest in growth stocks).
But Len went a step further. He wanted to find indicators that would show him growth stocks more likely to have positive earnings surprises BEFORE they happened. If you could do that, then the odds of success were firmly stacked in your favor.
For the next several years Len worked feverishly to discover these indicators. Gladly for all of us he did find 4 leading indicators of future earnings surprises. Three of these measures are ways of looking at brokerage analyst earnings estimate revisions. The last being an analysis of past earnings surprises.
Each factor is potent by itself. Blending them together creates an almost unfair advantage for investorsthat advantage is now called the Zacks Rank stock rating system.
I know youve probably heard this story countless times before from us that the Zacks #1 Ranked buy stocks have a 28% annualized return since 1988.
So if youve heard the story http://www.magliacalcioitalia.it/maglia-salvatore-sirigu-italia-calcio.html , then let me ask you a more personal question:
Why havent you used it???
Yes, its true the Zacks Rank is part of our Zacks Premium subscription service. But we give you a 30 day free trial to use this resource with absolutely no obligation to buy. And beyond the Zacks Rank for 4400 stocks, you also get our equity research reports, stock screening strategies and even our new mutual fund rank covering nearly 19,000 funds.